Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock: filings, catalysts and timeline
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FundamentalsWhat is this?HideToo few of the required measures on file
How the business is doing on its own reported US-GAAP numbers — growth, margins, cash generation, balance-sheet strength, capital efficiency and dilution — compared with sector peers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements.
ValueWhat is this?HideWeak
How the shares are priced against sector peers, against the company's own recent history, and against a simple cash-flow estimate, using the filing numbers and the current price. AIR shows this as a band, never as a target price.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements and end-of-day prices.
News flowWhat is this?HideBalanced
What the company has documented recently: material 8-K events (contracts, deals, results, leadership changes) and FDA approvals, weighted by recency and type. A language model's reading of each 8-K helps classify whether it is positive or negative. Filings, not press or social media.
Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and FDA approvals.
MomentumWhat is this?HideWeak
The longer-term market read: the trend in end-of-day prices, strength against the market and the sector, and trading volume over roughly the past three to twelve months. It is shown, never used to rank the Shortlist.
Source: End-of-day prices.
SafetyWhat is this?HideBalanced
The risk side: leverage, liquidity, cash runway, dilution, revenue and margin swings, company size and pre-commercial status, negative 8-K events (including legal and regulatory ones), and share-price drawdown and volatility. Higher means fewer of those risk markers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements, SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and end-of-day prices.
Fundamental score not available. AIR's fundamental engine is built for businesses with established revenue and cash flow; biotech financial profiles — often R&D-heavy or pre-revenue — don't yet fit the measures it requires. AIR still assesses this company on News flow, Momentum and Safety, and the missing score lowers its Evidence strength.
Discovery Gap: Medium (22/100) · Gap confidence 66/100
Some evidence isn't yet fully priced in.
Low is the most common level — the cut-offs are fixed, and levels can shift as scores refresh.
What is this?Hide
How far documented progress (News flow) runs ahead of market attention. Attention is measured from institutional holdings reported to the SEC, trading volume, price behaviour and how richly the shares are valued — not from social media or analyst ratings.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings (8-K and 13F), FDA approvals and end-of-day prices.
How levels work. The levels use fixed cut-offs, but market attention is ranked against the other ~1,800 companies AIR covers that day (valuation against the same sector). Documented progress counts filings from the past 18 months, newer ones weighing more; attention uses the latest quarter of institutional holdings, the last three to six months of trading, and six to twelve months of price behaviour. Many companies show a Low Gap or none at all — a gap needs filings that read more positively than neutral. A level can change from one day to the next as scores refresh and the other companies move.
Gap confidenceWhat is this?HideStrong 66/100How fully AIR could measure this Gap.
How fully AIR could measure both sides of the Discovery Gap: the documented progress (News flow) and market attention (Recognition). It takes the weaker of the two, and reads zero when either side has no measurement. It describes the data, not the company.
Evidence strengthWhat is this?HideModerate 55/100Support behind the full AIR read, not only the Gap.
How much data stands behind the whole AIR read — all five perspectives, not just the Discovery Gap. Each perspective reports how complete its inputs are, and these are combined in the same proportions as the AIR Score; a perspective AIR could not score adds nothing, so missing data lowers this figure. It describes the data, not the company.
This month at a glance
Evidence timeline
- Expected
Thu 5 Nov · expected 10-Q
Last year filed 5 Nov 2025.
Thu 18 Feb · expected 10-K
Last year filed 18 Feb 2026.
- Filed
Tue 3 Nov · 8-K
8-K · Items 2.01, 2.02, 2.05 — Acquisition or disposal of assets
Ultragenyx completed sale of PRV for $210M but announced 20% workforce reduction (~200 employees), ~$25M restructuring charges, termination of UX701 program, and wind-down of GTX-102 studies despite reaffirming 2027 profitability guidance.
Gap Very high · 50 → Medium · 22The gap narrowed as the filings read less positively.
Mon 19 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Item 8.01 — Other events
Gap Very high · 62 → Very high · 51The gap narrowed — attention is catching up.
The price trend weakened.
Wed 14 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Item 1.01 — Material agreement
Ultragenyx agreed to sell a Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for $203 million in cash. The PRV was awarded by the FDA following approval of FAYUVI for pediatric MPS IIIA treatment.
Gap High · 38 → Very high · 62Progress is running ahead of attention.
Wed 7 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Item 1.01 — Material agreement
Ultragenyx agreed to sell a Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) awarded for GENGLYCOS approval for $210 million in cash, subject to customary closing conditions including HSR clearance.
Gap Low · 2 → High · 38Progress is running ahead of attention.
Thu 17 Sep · 8-K
Wed 2 Sep · 8-K
Wed 19 Aug · 8-K
Tue 11 Aug · 8-K
Wed 5 Aug · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 31 Jul 2026
Tue 4 Aug · 8-K
Mon 18 May · 8-K
Wed 6 May · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 1 May 2026
Tue 5 May · 8-K
Thu 2 Apr · 8-K
Mon 30 Mar · 8-K
Thu 12 Mar · 8-K
Mon 23 Feb · 8-K
Wed 18 Feb · 10-K
Annual report (10-K), FY2026
Thu 12 Feb · 8-K
Tue 3 Feb · 8-K
Fri 30 Jan · 8-K
Mon 12 Jan · 8-K
Tue 30 Dec · 8-K
Mon 29 Dec · 8-K
Solid dots: a filing AIR classified as material. Grey: routine. Hollow: expected, from last year's dates — not a forecast.
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What would change our view
Research, not tips. No buy/sell recommendations, no price forecasts. Every score is derived from public filings and market data — figures round to whole numbers and refresh each trading day.