Geo Group Inc stock: filings, catalysts and timeline
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FundamentalsWhat is this?HideBalanced
How the business is doing on its own reported US-GAAP numbers — growth, margins, cash generation, balance-sheet strength, capital efficiency and dilution — compared with sector peers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements.
ValueWhat is this?HideToo few of the required measures on file
How the shares are priced against sector peers, against the company's own recent history, and against a simple cash-flow estimate, using the filing numbers and the current price. AIR shows this as a band, never as a target price.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements and end-of-day prices.
News flowWhat is this?HideBalanced
What the company has documented recently: material 8-K events (contracts, deals, results, leadership changes) and FDA approvals, weighted by recency and type. A language model's reading of each 8-K helps classify whether it is positive or negative. Filings, not press or social media.
Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and FDA approvals.
MomentumWhat is this?HideStrong
The longer-term market read: the trend in end-of-day prices, strength against the market and the sector, and trading volume over roughly the past three to twelve months. It is shown, never used to rank the Shortlist.
Source: End-of-day prices.
SafetyWhat is this?HideBalanced
The risk side: leverage, liquidity, cash runway, dilution, revenue and margin swings, company size and pre-commercial status, negative 8-K events (including legal and regulatory ones), and share-price drawdown and volatility. Higher means fewer of those risk markers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements, SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and end-of-day prices.
Discovery Gap: Very high (70/100) · Gap confidence 67/100
Documented progress is running well ahead of market attention.
Low is the most common level — the cut-offs are fixed, and levels can shift as scores refresh.
What is this?Hide
How far documented progress (News flow) runs ahead of market attention. Attention is measured from institutional holdings reported to the SEC, trading volume, price behaviour and how richly the shares are valued — not from social media or analyst ratings.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings (8-K and 13F), FDA approvals and end-of-day prices.
How levels work. The levels use fixed cut-offs, but market attention is ranked against the other ~1,800 companies AIR covers that day (valuation against the same sector). Documented progress counts filings from the past 18 months, newer ones weighing more; attention uses the latest quarter of institutional holdings, the last three to six months of trading, and six to twelve months of price behaviour. Many companies show a Low Gap or none at all — a gap needs filings that read more positively than neutral. A level can change from one day to the next as scores refresh and the other companies move.
Gap confidenceWhat is this?HideStrong 67/100How fully AIR could measure this Gap.
How fully AIR could measure both sides of the Discovery Gap: the documented progress (News flow) and market attention (Recognition). It takes the weaker of the two, and reads zero when either side has no measurement. It describes the data, not the company.
Evidence strengthWhat is this?HideStrong 65/100Support behind the full AIR read, not only the Gap.
How much data stands behind the whole AIR read — all five perspectives, not just the Discovery Gap. Each perspective reports how complete its inputs are, and these are combined in the same proportions as the AIR Score; a perspective AIR could not score adds nothing, so missing data lowers this figure. It describes the data, not the company.
This month at a glance
Capital returns
Latest buyback
Buyback increased · Increased its share buyback by $750 million, now running to 31 Dec 2029.
Filed 8 Oct 2026 · As stated in the filing →
Evidence timeline
- Expected
Fri 6 Nov · expected 10-Q
Last year filed 6 Nov 2025.
Thu 25 Feb · expected 10-K
Last year filed 25 Feb 2026.
- Filed
Thu 8 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Items 1.01, 2.03, 8.01 — Material agreement
GEO amended and extended its $550M revolving credit facility to July 2031, increased incremental debt capacity to $750M, and redeemed $650M of 2029 Senior Secured Notes using asset sale proceeds. Restricted payments capacity expanded significantly.
News flow: Balanced 52 → Balanced 59Gap Medium · 22 → Very high · 68The filings read more positively.
Progress is running ahead of attention.
The price trend strengthened.
- Buyback increasedIncreased its share buyback by $750 million, now running to 31 Dec 2029. As stated in the filing →
Mon 5 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Items 1.01, 2.01, 8.01 — Material agreement
GEO completed sale of three Adelanto, California ICE facilities (2,644 beds) to DHS for $950M gross ($705M net). Company retains service contracts through 2034 and increased share repurchase authorization to $1.25B.
News flow: Balanced 52 → Balanced 57Gap Medium · 22 → Very high · 56The filings read more positively.
Progress is running ahead of attention.
The price trend weakened.
- Buyback increasedIncreased its share buyback, now running to 31 Dec 2029. As stated in the filing →
Thu 6 Aug · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 3 Aug 2026
Thu 6 Aug · 8-K
Thu 7 May · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 4 May 2026
Wed 6 May · 8-K
Mon 4 May · 8-K
Thu 5 Mar · 8-K
Wed 25 Feb · 10-K
Annual report (10-K), FY2026
Thu 12 Feb · 8-K
Thu 12 Feb · 8-K
Mon 26 Jan · 8-K
Mon 8 Dec · 8-K
Tue 18 Nov · 8-K
Thu 6 Nov · 8-K
Thu 6 Nov · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 4 Nov 2025
Solid dots: a filing AIR classified as material. Grey: routine. Hollow: expected, from last year's dates — not a forecast.
Ask AIR
What would change our view
Research, not tips. No buy/sell recommendations, no price forecasts. Every score is derived from public filings and market data — figures round to whole numbers and refresh each trading day.