HF Sinclair Corp stock: filings, catalysts and timeline
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FundamentalsWhat is this?HideWatch
How the business is doing on its own reported US-GAAP numbers — growth, margins, cash generation, balance-sheet strength, capital efficiency and dilution — compared with sector peers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements.
ValueWhat is this?HideStrong
How the shares are priced against sector peers, against the company's own recent history, and against a simple cash-flow estimate, using the filing numbers and the current price. AIR shows this as a band, never as a target price.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements and end-of-day prices.
News flowWhat is this?HideBalanced
What the company has documented recently: material 8-K events (contracts, deals, results, leadership changes) and FDA approvals, weighted by recency and type. A language model's reading of each 8-K helps classify whether it is positive or negative. Filings, not press or social media.
Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and FDA approvals.
MomentumWhat is this?HideVery strong
The longer-term market read: the trend in end-of-day prices, strength against the market and the sector, and trading volume over roughly the past three to twelve months. It is shown, never used to rank the Shortlist.
Source: End-of-day prices.
SafetyWhat is this?HideStrong
The risk side: leverage, liquidity, cash runway, dilution, revenue and margin swings, company size and pre-commercial status, negative 8-K events (including legal and regulatory ones), and share-price drawdown and volatility. Higher means fewer of those risk markers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements, SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and end-of-day prices.
Discovery Gap: Medium (11/100) · Gap confidence 51/100
Some evidence isn't yet fully priced in.
Low is the most common level — the cut-offs are fixed, and levels can shift as scores refresh.
What is this?Hide
How far documented progress (News flow) runs ahead of market attention. Attention is measured from institutional holdings reported to the SEC, trading volume, price behaviour and how richly the shares are valued — not from social media or analyst ratings.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings (8-K and 13F), FDA approvals and end-of-day prices.
How levels work. The levels use fixed cut-offs, but market attention is ranked against the other ~1,800 companies AIR covers that day (valuation against the same sector). Documented progress counts filings from the past 18 months, newer ones weighing more; attention uses the latest quarter of institutional holdings, the last three to six months of trading, and six to twelve months of price behaviour. Many companies show a Low Gap or none at all — a gap needs filings that read more positively than neutral. A level can change from one day to the next as scores refresh and the other companies move.
Gap confidenceWhat is this?HideModerate 51/100How fully AIR could measure this Gap.
How fully AIR could measure both sides of the Discovery Gap: the documented progress (News flow) and market attention (Recognition). It takes the weaker of the two, and reads zero when either side has no measurement. It describes the data, not the company.
Evidence strengthWhat is this?HideStrong 81/100Support behind the full AIR read, not only the Gap.
How much data stands behind the whole AIR read — all five perspectives, not just the Discovery Gap. Each perspective reports how complete its inputs are, and these are combined in the same proportions as the AIR Score; a perspective AIR could not score adds nothing, so missing data lowers this figure. It describes the data, not the company.
This month at a glance
Capital returns
Latest buyback
Buyback approved · Approved a $1,500 million share buyback.
Filed 26 Aug 2026 · As stated in the filing →
Evidence timeline
- Expected
Mon 1 Mar · expected 10-K
Last year filed 27 Feb 2026.
Mon 3 May · expected 10-Q
Last year filed 1 May 2026.
- Filed
Fri 30 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Item 1.01 — Material agreement
HF Sinclair repurchased 2.35M shares from REH Advisors for ~$257M at $109.37/share under its $1.5B authorization. REH's ownership will fall below the 5% board designation threshold, triggering potential board seat resignation.
Gap Low · 0 → Medium · 11Progress is running ahead of attention.
Wed 28 Oct · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 30 Sep 2026
Recognition: Strong 74 → Strong 70Value: Balanced 55 → Strong 75Gap Low · 0 → Medium · 11Market attention has faded.
The shares became cheaper on AIR's value read.
Progress is running ahead of attention.
The price trend weakened.
Wed 28 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Items 2.02, 5.02 — Results of operations
Q3 2026 net income of $2,015M ($11.38/share) vs. $403M ($2.15/share) YoY; adjusted net income $2,079M ($11.75/share) vs. $459M ($2.44/share). Returned $572M to shareholders. CEO transition announced effective Jan 1, 2027.
Recognition: Strong 74 → Strong 70Value: Balanced 55 → Strong 75Gap Low · 0 → Medium · 11Market attention has faded.
The shares became cheaper on AIR's value read.
Progress is running ahead of attention.
The price trend weakened.
Wed 26 Aug · 8-K
8-K · Item 8.01 — Other events
- Buyback approvedApproved a $1,500 million share buyback. As stated in the filing →
Wed 5 Aug · 8-K
Thu 30 Jul · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 24 Jul 2026
Tue 28 Jul · 8-K
Tue 28 Jul · 8-K
Wed 8 Jul · 8-K
Tue 19 May · 8-K
Wed 13 May · 8-K
Wed 13 May · 8-K
Tue 12 May · 8-K
Fri 1 May · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 27 Apr 2026
Fri 1 May · 8-K
Tue 31 Mar · 8-K
Fri 6 Mar · 8-K
Fri 27 Feb · 10-K
Annual report (10-K), FY2026
Wed 18 Feb · 8-K
Tue 9 Dec · 8-K
Tue 9 Dec · 8-K
Thu 20 Nov · 8-K
Solid dots: a filing AIR classified as material. Grey: routine. Hollow: expected, from last year's dates — not a forecast.
Ask AIR
What would change our view
Research, not tips. No buy/sell recommendations, no price forecasts. Every score is derived from public filings and market data — figures round to whole numbers and refresh each trading day.