ADT Inc. stock: filings, catalysts and timeline
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FundamentalsWhat is this?HideBalanced
How the business is doing on its own reported US-GAAP numbers — growth, margins, cash generation, balance-sheet strength, capital efficiency and dilution — compared with sector peers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements.
ValueWhat is this?HideBalanced
How the shares are priced against sector peers, against the company's own recent history, and against a simple cash-flow estimate, using the filing numbers and the current price. AIR shows this as a band, never as a target price.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements and end-of-day prices.
News flowWhat is this?HideBalanced
What the company has documented recently: material 8-K events (contracts, deals, results, leadership changes) and FDA approvals, weighted by recency and type. A language model's reading of each 8-K helps classify whether it is positive or negative. Filings, not press or social media.
Source: SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and FDA approvals.
MomentumWhat is this?HideStrong
The longer-term market read: the trend in end-of-day prices, strength against the market and the sector, and trading volume over roughly the past three to twelve months. It is shown, never used to rank the Shortlist.
Source: End-of-day prices.
SafetyWhat is this?HideBalanced
The risk side: leverage, liquidity, cash runway, dilution, revenue and margin swings, company size and pre-commercial status, negative 8-K events (including legal and regulatory ones), and share-price drawdown and volatility. Higher means fewer of those risk markers.
Source: SEC XBRL financial statements, SEC EDGAR 8-K filings and end-of-day prices.
Discovery Gap: Low (0/100) · Gap confidence 51/100
The market has largely caught up to the documented story.
Low is the most common level — the cut-offs are fixed, and levels can shift as scores refresh.
What is this?Hide
How far documented progress (News flow) runs ahead of market attention. Attention is measured from institutional holdings reported to the SEC, trading volume, price behaviour and how richly the shares are valued — not from social media or analyst ratings.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings (8-K and 13F), FDA approvals and end-of-day prices.
How levels work. The levels use fixed cut-offs, but market attention is ranked against the other ~1,800 companies AIR covers that day (valuation against the same sector). Documented progress counts filings from the past 18 months, newer ones weighing more; attention uses the latest quarter of institutional holdings, the last three to six months of trading, and six to twelve months of price behaviour. Many companies show a Low Gap or none at all — a gap needs filings that read more positively than neutral. A level can change from one day to the next as scores refresh and the other companies move.
Gap confidenceWhat is this?HideModerate 51/100How fully AIR could measure this Gap.
How fully AIR could measure both sides of the Discovery Gap: the documented progress (News flow) and market attention (Recognition). It takes the weaker of the two, and reads zero when either side has no measurement. It describes the data, not the company.
Evidence strengthWhat is this?HideStrong 81/100Support behind the full AIR read, not only the Gap.
How much data stands behind the whole AIR read — all five perspectives, not just the Discovery Gap. Each perspective reports how complete its inputs are, and these are combined in the same proportions as the AIR Score; a perspective AIR could not score adds nothing, so missing data lowers this figure. It describes the data, not the company.
This month at a glance
Evidence timeline
- Expected
Tue 2 Mar · expected 10-K
Last year filed 2 Mar 2026.
Fri 30 Apr · expected 10-Q
Last year filed 30 Apr 2026.
- Filed
Tue 3 Nov · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 30 Sep 2026
Recognition: Balanced 53 → Balanced 56More of the market is starting to notice.
The price trend strengthened.
Tue 3 Nov · 8-K
8-K · Item 2.02 — Results of operations
ADT reported Q3 2026 results with 4% revenue growth to $1.3B, GAAP EPS up 18%, and adjusted free cash flow up 4%. Company announced pending acquisition by Thrive Holdings at $10/share in all-cash deal expected to close Q1 2027.
Recognition: Balanced 53 → Balanced 56More of the market is starting to notice.
The price trend strengthened.
Thu 29 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Items 1.01, 5.02 — Material agreement
ADT Inc. entered into a merger agreement with Abode Parent, LLC on October 29, 2026, whereby shareholders will receive $10.00 per share in cash. The transaction is subject to stockholder approval and regulatory clearance, with a go-shop period ending November 29, 2026.
Recognition: Watch 37 → Balanced 53Value: Strong 76 → Balanced 48More of the market is starting to notice.
The shares became dearer on AIR's value read.
The price trend strengthened.
Thu 29 Oct · 8-K
8-K · Item 8.01 — Other events
Recognition: Watch 37 → Balanced 53Value: Strong 76 → Balanced 48More of the market is starting to notice.
The shares became dearer on AIR's value read.
The price trend strengthened.
Mon 31 Aug · 8-K
Thu 30 Jul · 8-K
Thu 30 Jul · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 30 Jun 2026
Thu 28 May · 8-K
Fri 8 May · 8-K
Thu 30 Apr · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 31 Mar 2026
Thu 30 Apr · 8-K
Fri 24 Apr · 8-K
Mon 2 Mar · 10-K
Annual report (10-K), FY2025
Mon 2 Mar · 8-K
Tue 24 Feb · 8-K
Tue 4 Nov · 8-K
Tue 4 Nov · 10-Q
Quarterly report (10-Q), period ending 30 Sep 2025
Tue 28 Oct · 8-K
Wed 15 Oct · 8-K
Tue 30 Sep · 8-K
Tue 30 Sep · 8-K
Thu 25 Sep · 8-K
Mon 15 Sep · 8-K
Solid dots: a filing AIR classified as material. Grey: routine. Hollow: expected, from last year's dates — not a forecast.
Ask AIR
What would change our view
Research, not tips. No buy/sell recommendations, no price forecasts. Every score is derived from public filings and market data — figures round to whole numbers and refresh each trading day.